Possibility of the Wild Fire Crossing the Atlantic?
Recent explosions of protest in Tunisia, Egypt, and Jordan have unsettled even the most self-assured governments around the world. Many countries with minimal economic and diplomatic ties to these nations—whose civic core is now erupting—are apprehensive. Their discomfort is not necessarily traceable back to any fiscal or trade interruptions caused by the Middle Eastern protests, but rather from uprisings that obviously cannot be contained by state boundaries.
This raises the question of whether these infectiously inspiring revolutions will endure. Will they be muzzled within the region, or will the seeds of these protests be widely dispersed? How will they affect Latin America, where there are plenty of have-nots among a population that is growing at a rapid tempo? Should the world expect the 52-year reign of the Castro brothers to be overthrown in the streets, or that Hugo Chávez’s legacy be shortened due to civilian unrest? Doubtful—at least in Latin America. That is not to say that millions of Latin Americans are not at times enraged with their political leaders, but the potential for protests of a similar scale to Tunisia and Egypt is unlikely for the foreseeable future. The civil societies of the Middle East and the Maghreb differ significantly from those of Latin America, thus it is unlikely that they will produce comparable results.
This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Associate Rebecca Walker
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