Brazilian Election: A First-Round Setback for Lula’s Protégé

Round One: Favorite Falls Just Short of the Line

Sunday’s election result in Brazil did not transpire in the way that polls had predicted. Until a week ago, it was widely assumed that Dilma Rousseff of the Worker’s Party (PT) was a shoo-in for victory in the first round of voting, following the endorsement of the widely popular incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. However, as results emerged it became clear that Rousseff had failed to reach the 50% of votes needed to take the presidency without a runoff. In the end, Rousseff won 47.6% of the vote, while José Serra, a veteran of the Social Democrat Party (PSDB) took second place with 32.6%, reflecting a setback for the Lula machine.

The primary reason for Rousseff’s partial decline in popularity in the run-up to the election seems to be continued fallout from corruption scandals in the PT that shook her campaign. In mid-September, allegations were published in Veja magazine that Israel Guerra, the son of Lula’s chief of staff Erenice Guerra, had solicited money from companies to arrange government contracts and loans. Guerra ended up resigning as a result of the accusations. In spite of this, polls consistently put Rousseff over the 50% mark, suggesting that additional factors may have dented her campaign as well.

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This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Associate Nicky Pear